Monday, February 16, 2009

ECONOFACTS
February 2009
LLB Information Systems, Elon, NC
Copyright © 2009

The United States economy is grossly mismanaged and rife with inefficiencies. After October 2008 our country ran out of money and credit dried up. Excess lending was fueled by leveraging credit as high as 40 to one. Bad loans were rewarded with excessive bonuses. As banks and lending agencies began to fail, employment took a nose dive. Now a stimulus package is needed to resurrect the economy.
U.S. Economic Performance Rates are not consistent with Economic Theory. Current economic performance rates for January 2009 are presented in the table below. Actual performance data is obtained from the federal government. Theoretical data is obtained from the entropy theory of economics.

The economy has to be adjusted to perform along the guidelines of entropy economics as shown by the econolibrium table which is a tabular expression of the entropy theory of economics.
The US Public Debt to the Penny has been published every working day since the office opened in 1798. This debt figure is the theoretical basis for determining the actual performance of the economy. The latest public debt figure divided by the prior monthly debt figure gives a true reading of current economic growth.
Calculating the latest reported, 1/5/09 (10708) Debt by the previous months Debt (10654) of the previous month shows a deviation of + .6% which indicates the true current growth of the economy. This growth rate suggests a slowly expanding economy and markets. To pull the U.S. out of its slump, big growth in GDP is needed which requires high employment. High employment derives from a high M2 money supply and public debt.
Public debt drives the pace of the economy. M2 money supply compliments debt by driving up employment rates when it exceeds debt levels and drives down employment when it trails debt levels. Expansive money supply is always inflationary and keeps employment extraordinarily high.
Employment potential for an economy is set by capacity utilization and money supply. Capacity utilization sets the minimum employment level for an economy. Money supply adjusts employment higher or lower. Over time employment converges to reflect an equilibrium working employment rate.
Capacity utility theory currently supports 33% population employment, while money supply supports 45% employment. With money supply declining because of the credit crunch, employment will continue to drop.
Today a federal stimulus package is needed to keep employment at preffered levels. The amount of the stimulus should be at least half the difference between public debt and M2 money supply or $1.3 trillion.
Market inefficiencies include an employment rate that is declining. The deviation from expected versus actual economic growth bears this out. The stimulus package promised by democrats to resurrect the American economy will not open significant money flows until months after its approval by Congress, the Senate, and the President. This is too little, too late, to assert significant change in economic growth and employment figures should continue to decline.
Coordination between political, labor, and financial policy implementations must be synchronized to create a transition to economic prosperity. The politicians are pushing job development and security while the financial system cannot act fast enough to effect these changes with lagging promises of monetary stimulation. The United States is experiencing the pain of transitioning back to a production economy. The delusion of a service economy as the wave of the future has brought Americans to economic peril. We must produce goods to stay solvent amongst ourselves and competitive in world manufacturing. We must maintain fair trade policies that are inclusive to American goods being marketed overseas with the same benefits as our NAFTA cohorts.
Because of American economic mismanagement and inefficiencies, we are vulnerable to sacrificing our youth, not only now saddled with the burden of long term enormous debt, but also with mandatory conscription. Charley Rangel (D-NY) is poised and waiting for the stimulus package to pass and then will introduce his military draft legislation. These were the tactics of Nazi Germany. Indoctrinate the country’s youth and increase economic stimulation and gain momentum to push forward an agenda inconsistent with our country’s heritage, culture, and nationalism. Application of the entropy theory can help block this trend to keep economic control out of the hands of a few.

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